Scientists start from hunches, examine available data, advance tentative
conclusions, test them in the light of wider observations, and round out
their research by formulating general principles or "laws." This
scientific approach has been used in many fields of observation and
study. I am applying the formula to one aspect of social history: the
appearance, development, maturity, decline and disappearance of the vast
co-ordinations of collective, experimental human effort called
civilizations.
"Assyria, Greece, Rome, Carthage, where are they?" asked Byron. He might
have added: "What were they? How did they come into being? What was the
nature of their experience? Why did they rise from small beginnings,
develop into wide-spread colossal complexes of wealth and power, and
then, after longer or shorter periods of existence, break up and
disappear from the stage of social history?"
Such questions are far removed from the lives of people who are busy
with everyday affairs. In one sense they _are_ remote; in the larger
picture, however, they are of vital concern to anyone and everyone now
living in civilized communities. If Assyrians, Egyptians, Greeks, Romans
and Carthaginians built extensive empires and massive civilizations that
flourished for a time, then broke up and disappeared, are we to follow
blindly and unthinkingly in their footsteps? Or do we study their
experiences, benefit from their successes and learn from their mistakes?
Can we not take lessons out of their voluminous notebooks, avoid their
blunders and direct our own feet along paths that fulfil our lives at
the same time that they meet the widespread demand for survival and
well-being?
Civilization has been extensively experimental.
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